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п»їPete Prisco's NFL Week 9 picks: Patriots squeak out win over Jets, Ravens hold off Colts and more predictions.
Prisco reveals his NFL picks for Week 9, including why the Patriots will win a closer game than most expect.
I knew it was coming eventually, but the hurt from my first losing week still wasn't fun. Yes, the picks went rotten last week.
For the first time this season, my picks against the spread were on the negative side of the ledger. I went 5-9 ATS to drop my record to 64-53-1 for the year. My straight up mark was 9-5 to get to 80-37-1 for the year. I also had my first losing week on the Pick Six Podcast with my best bets, going 3-4. That makes my season mark 31-17-1.
Now that the dud week is out of my system, it's time to get back on track, which I plan to do.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 9? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join Will Brinson to break down their best bets and every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at San Francisco 49ers.
This rematch of the NFC title game last January has a different look to it for the 49ers in a big way. They are decimated by injuries, starting Nick Mullens at quarterback while being without George Kittle. They can still run the ball, which has been a problem for the Packers. But without Kittle and with a backup quarterback, it will be tougher to run it. The Packers will be thin at running back, but I think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game will move the ball and find a way to win against a depleted team.
Pick: Packers 28, 49ers 21.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3)
This game actually matters in the division race. That's sick. The Giants are playing on a short week after losing to the Bucs Monday night, while Washington is coming off a bye. The more rested team will be the one that plays better as the defensive front has a big day. Washington takes it.
Pick: Washington 21, Giants 17.
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Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Both teams come in on two-game losing streaks. The Titans have major issues on defense, while the Bears have major issues on offense. Something has to give, and I think it's the Bears offense that gets it going. Titans win it, but it's close.
Pick: Titans 31, Bears 30.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
The Vikings won at Green Bay last week by doing it the old-fashioned way: pounding the football. They will try and do that here with Dalvin Cook and should be able to run it. The concern is the Minnesota defense. But I think they showed some improvement last week that will carry over here. Vikings win another.
Pick: Vikings 28, Lions 23.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
The Panthers have lost three straight and now must travel to play one of the best teams in the league. The Chiefs will have an offensive explosion again here against the Carolina defense. Even with Christian McCaffrey likely back, it won't matter. Chiefs big.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Panthers 21.
Houston Texans (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
This will be Jake Luton making his first start for the Jaguars. The rookie has a big arm, and he looked good in camp, according to team sources. But this is a big challenge. The Jaguars defense has been awful and Deshaun Watson should light them up. Texans take it.
Pick: Texans 35, Jaguars 20.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts.
This is one of the better games of the week. The Colts have won two straight as Philip Rivers has righted his season. But this is a big challenge in the Ravens defense. The Baltimore offense has run it well, but it will be the passing that wins this game. Lamar Jackson gets it going.
Pick: Ravens 28, Colts 27.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills.
This is another good game this week. This is a long trip for Seattle to face a good Buffalo team. But the Buffalo defense has really struggled the past month. That is good news for Russell Wilson. He will light up the Buffalo secondary. Seattle wins a high-scoring game as Josh Allen also will play well.
Pick: Seahawks 33, Bills 28.
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
The Falcons have won two of three under interim coach Raheem Morris and have been rejuvenated a bit. Denver looked good coming back against the Chargers with Drew Lock leading it. This has a chance to be high scoring, but I think Matt Ryan will get the best of the Denver defense.
Pick: Falcons 30, Broncos 24.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
The Raiders impressed last week on the road winning at Cleveland. The defense came up big. They face a tough challenge in hot rookie passer Justin Herbert. The Chargers find new ways to blow leads seemingly every week. But that won't happen here as Herbert has a big day.
Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 27.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) at Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys are a mess, while the Steelers are the league's best team. They are playing a third straight road game, which is usually tough. But this is one of those games where you can throw that out the window. They are much better than the Cowboys right now, who will likely start Cooper Rush with Andy Dalton on the COVID-19 list. The Steelers stay unbeaten.
Pick: Steelers 34, Cowboys 20.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-5)
The Dolphins have the top-scoring defense in the league, while the Cardinals were clicking on offense before the bye. This is a long trip for the Dolphins, but they won at San Francisco earlier this year. Even so, the Cardinals will carry over their hot play from before the bye and find a way to win this one. Kyler Murray beats Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Dolphins 21.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
The Bucs are playing on a short week and didn't look great against the Giants. But the Saints are playing consecutive road games. New Orleans won the first meeting, but this is a much better Tampa Bay team. The defense will get all over Drew Brees. Tom Brady will beat him in this one.
Pick: Bucs 27, Saints 17.
New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets.
What a bad Monday night game this is for us. The Patriots have lost four straight, while the Jets haven't won yet. They won't win here either, but it will be close. The Patriots aren't a good team either. Take the points.
Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 21.


SB Nation NFL Expert Picks Week 9.
Saints-Bucs? It would have been boring in years past but not in 2020.
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When it comes to the up-and-down 2020 NFL season this may be the easiest week of all to pick. Our panel is fairly in line when it comes to Week 9, with only a couple of games swinging around.
One game to keep an eye on will be in the NFC South, where the Buccaneers and Saints face off. A year ago this would have been one of the easiest picks in football, but it really shows how much things have changed. New Orleans’ offense isn’t nearly as potent without Michael Thomas, and Drew Brees has taken a step back this season. Meanwhile the completely overhauled Buccaneers are finding their groove. Tom Brady has integrated himself into the offense, and is playing fantastic football. That’s lead to our entire panel believing Tampa Bay will win this week, and it’s one of the more remarkable flips we’ve seen over the course of the year.
On the other side of the spectrum we have a fantastic game between two of the best teams in the NFL when the Seahawks face the Bills. Both teams will figure into the playoff picture, but at least this week the panel is firmly behind Seattle. That might feel unfair if you’re a Bills fan, but Russell Wilson is playing better football than almost anyone in the NFL right now, and he’s on pace to be firmly in MVP talk when the season is over. That’s enough on its own to warrant a Seahawks’ pick.
If you want a REALLY safe pick, just go with Pittsburgh. There is absolutely no way the Steelers lose this week against the Cowboys, who are hapless in every single way this season. It would be bad enough just considering the team are without Dak Prescott, but that jumped into the stratosphere with news Andy Dalton had contracted Covid. Now Dallas are using a variety of backups and practice squad quarterbacks to fill in their depth chart and it’s all a giant mess. Putting the ball in Ezekiel Elliot’s hands and saying “go” is a game plan for sure, but definitely won’t be enough to really make an impact in this game.
Finally, we have the floundering mess of the week between the Giants and Washington Football Team. Both seem allergic to winning, punctuating how sad the NFC East is. This will be a beautiful disaster of a game, and I wouldn’t bet on this if my life depended on it.


B/R Expert Consensus NFL Picks for Week 9.
November is (basically) here, and we've got 121 games down with 135 to go.
The 2019 NFL regular season is essentially halfway done, and Bleacher Report NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon and Brent Sobleski are essentially positioned where they were at the start of the year when it comes to picking every game against the spread.
Here's an updated look at where they stand (last week's records in parentheses):
Consensus picks : 60-61 (7-8)
Moneyline consensus : 83-37-1 (14-1)
There's plenty of time for any or all of them to find a groove and just as much time for this train to derail. This is a critical slate as the crew tries to bounce back from a sub-.500 week across the board and build on a near-perfect performance straight-up.
Here's where they stand for all 14 games on the weekend schedule.
Lines from Caesars as of 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 30.
San Francisco 49ers (7-0) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)
Teams that finished 2018 with losing records were 1-6-1 ATS on Thursdays last season against teams that finished with winning records. Right now, the Arizona Cardinals have a losing record, and the San Francisco 49ers most definitely have a winning record.
Good teams often trample bad teams on short rest. And while the Minnesota Vikings fell short of covering in a similar situation last week against the Washington Redskins, our crew figures catching on to that trend will pay off in Week 9.
"The Cardinals' continued improvement makes a 10-point spread quite enticing," Sobleski admitted. "But the 49ers showed exactly how good they are last weekend when they annihilated the Carolina Panthers. Kyler Murray will make a few plays with his feet because he'll be running for his life most of the contest thanks to the game's best defensive line. Plus, Arizona can't cover tight ends. At all. Hello, George Kittle."
Based on DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), Football Outsiders ranks the Cardinals dead last in the NFL at defending tight ends in pass coverage. They've been roasted this year by T.J. Hockenson, Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews and Greg Olsen, and Kittle is one of the most skilled players at the position.
While it's still fair to consider a double-digit spread too much in Glendale, Arizona's struggles against quality opponents this season ought to be taken into account. Against teams that currently have losing records, the Cardinals are 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 3.3 points. But against teams that currently have a winning record, they're 0-4 with three losses by at least 17 points (and two at home).
Predictions Davenport: San Francisco (-10) Gagnon: San Francisco (-10) Sobleski: San Francisco (-10) Consensus: San Francisco (-10)
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Cardinals 13.
Houston Texans (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans generated plenty of buzz with a thrilling Week 8 victory, but that win came by a mere three points at home against a tired and mediocre opponent. Now they're traveling nearly 5,000 miles to essentially play a road game against a familiar opponent that will be well-prepared for them in London.
That has the majority of our experts backing the Jacksonville Jaguars in a semi-pick'em.
"This is one of those picks you regret six nanoseconds after you make it," Davenport said. "Then I watched a replay of Deshaun Watson's superhero act last week, and that regret amplified exponentially. But the Houston secondary is a mess, the front seven is reeling after losing J.J. Watt to a season-ending injury, Gardner Minshew II is coming off arguably his best game of the season, and the Jaguars usually play well in London. All that's almost enough to make me feel good about this pick. Then I look at my ATS record for the season and just weep for a little while."
But Davenport is at least joined on this one by Gagnon, who has been the group's top picker by a wide margin this season. So whether you believe in riding a hot hand or taking advantage of expected regression to the mean, the Jags might be the pick for you.
For what it's worth, the Jags have fared pretty well in their British second home of late—they've won and covered in three of their last four games across the pond—and the Texans have been demolished by injuries.
Defensive backs Johnathan Joseph (shoulder), Bradley Roby (hamstring) and Tashaun Gipson Sr. (back) were all out in Week 8, they lost corner Lonnie Johnson to a concussion, starters Tytus Howard and Will Fuller V remained out on the offensive side of the ball, and they lost left tackle Laremy Tunsil to a shoulder injury against the Oakland Raiders.
Watson is a legitimate MVP contender who is tough to bet against, but he and the Texans have also been inconsistent this season.
He posted a passer rating of 110 or higher three times in the first five weeks of the season, but all three of those performances were directly followed by poor outings with sub-80 passer ratings. This week, he's coming off his fourth 110-plus-rated game, and he's facing a tough and talented defense that has held him to a sub-90 rating in each of their last three matchups.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Texans 23.
Chicago Bears (3-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)




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