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п»їUSA TODAY Sports' NFL championship game picks: Packers, Buccaneers, Chiefs and Bills seek Super Bowl 55 berths.
SportsPulse: Lorenzo Reyes was nearly flawless in the divisional round. He's back to provide his best bets for the NFL conference championship games. USA TODAY.
The NFL's version of the Final Four is nigh – and what a pair of matchups and what a quartet of quarterbacks championship weekend provides.
In Sunday's early game (3:05 p.m. ET), the NFC's top-seeded Green Bay Packers host the wild-card entry Tampa Bay Buccaneers at potentially snow-dusted Lambeau Field in what will be the first playoff meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
At 6:40 p.m. ET, Patrick Mahomes – assuming he has no setbacks after going through the concussion protocol – and the reigning champion and No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs of the AFC welcome the second-seeded Buffalo Bills to Arrowhead Stadium as the league's newest QB superstar, Josh Allen, plays in his first championship round tilt.
Both games are rematches of Week 6 contests won by the Chiefs and Bucs.
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NFL playoff picks, predictions: Packers edge Buccaneers, Chiefs hold off Bills in championship games.
NFL championship weekend features a pair of quarterback matchups for all ages.
First, Tampa Bay meets Green Bay in the NFC championship game at 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, 37, is playing in his fifth NFC championship game, but it's his first one at Lambeau Field. Tom Brady, 43, is in his 14th NFC championship game, but this is his first one in the NFC. It's also the first postseason matchup between the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
Buffalo travels to Kansas City for the AFC championship game at 6:40 p.m. ET. It's the Chiefs' third straight AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium, and it remains to be seen whether Patrick Mahomes, 25, will clear concussion protocol for the game. If not, the Chiefs will turn to backup quarterback Chad Henne, 35, who sealed the divisional playoff round victory against the Browns. Josh Allen, 24, is trying to get the Bills back in the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993.
Sporting News hit three of four on divisional playoff weekend. Here is a look at our track record this season:
Last Week: 3-1 Regular season: 129-75 Playoffs: 7-3 Overall: 136-78.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for the conference championship games:
NFL picks, predictions for championship games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m., FOX.
Green Bay looked unstoppable on offense against the Rams with the combination of Rodgers' efficiency and a three-headed running game led by Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon.
That's where this matchup starts. The Packers generated just 94 rushing yards in the regular-season meeting, a 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay that was ignited by two Rodgers' interceptions in the second quarter. The Buccaneers had five sacks, and the combined pressure from defensive linemen Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh flustered Green Bay. Devin White and Lavonte David are speedy linebackers who can stuff the run, too. That is the challenge for a Packers' offensive line that has improved since, even without starting tackle David Bakthiari.
Rodgers needs those play-action opportunities to work with Davante Adams and Robert Tonyan. Green Bay made it look easy against the Rams. Can they do it again?
Then there's Brady, who made the Packers pay for those mistakes in the first meeting. He's working with a loaded group of receivers. Ronald Jones had 113 yards and two TDs in the first meeting, and Green Bay's defense has been susceptible to the run. Defensive tackle Kenny Clark needs to be more disruptive in this game.
The Packers did not get a sack in that first meeting either. Rashan Gary, Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith need to pressure Brady, or he will sit back and work with a loaded group of receivers. Who wins the red-zone matchups between Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans and Green Bay's secondary, which features a lock-down cornerback in Jaire Alexander and an emerging safety in Darnell Savage Jr.? That will be the key.
With these two quarterbacks, it comes down to a handful of plays. The Packers will hold on to a one-score lead at halftime, but Tampa Bay ties it early in the fourth quarter with an Antonio Brown touchdown. It really might come down to which quarterback has the ball last – and which defense comes up with the stop. How much of an advantage is Lambeau Field? We think it makes the slight difference in an instant classic.
Pick: Packers 31, Buccaneers 28.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Sunday, 6:40 p.m., CBS.
It's difficult to make a pick without knowing whether Mahomes is playing this week, but we're going to base this prediction on the premise he's able to go. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip) also practiced last week but was inactive for the Browns' game. Edwards-Helaire had 161 rushing yards in Kansas City's 26-17 victory against the Bills in Week 6. Darrel Williams started over Le'Veon Bell last week, so he could be the focus if Edwards-Helaire can't go. The Chiefs also were without Sammy Watkins (calf) last week.
The good news? Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill were still in action. They can hit the chunk plays against Buffalo's secondary no matter who is at quarterback.
Josh Allen struggled in the regular-season matchup, but he didn't take a sack in that loss. He also had not established a strong connection with Stefon Diggs, who has emerged as one of the best – if not the best – receiver in the league this season. Allen will target Diggs frequently, and Cole Beasley and John Brown to need to take advantage of their 1-on-1 opportunities. The Bills need to generate a running game with Devin Singletary early, and Allen will make more plays this time.
Again, this pick still comes down to Mahomes. If he's cleared, then we'll assume he's healthy enough to lead the Chiefs to another Super Bowl appearance.
Buffalo takes the early lead on a Diggs' TD, and the Bills cling to a third-quarter lead before the Mahomes magic act begins. Second-half TDs to Kelce and Hill re-take the lead, and Kansas City closes the door behind the running game in the fourth quarter. If last week taught us anything, then it's Andy Reid won't hold back in crunch time.
It's tight again, but Kansas City repeats as AFC champions. We will re-evaluate this pick if he can't go.


NFL expert picks, predictions for Week 13 straight up.
The NFL playoff picture is coming into focus, even if the schedule continues to be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Week 13 schedule features 15 games, and there are two games between teams winning records. The Browns and Titans meet at 1 p.m. on Sunday in a matchup of AFC playoff contenders. The Rams and Cardinals meet at 4 p.m. ET in a matchup of NFC playoff contenders.
With two games on Monday night, the schedule remains day to day. We are coming off a solid week in the straight-up picks.
Here is a look at our track record in picking games straight-up in 2020:
Last Week: 10-4 (before Week 12 Monday/Tuesday) Season: 72-51 (before Week 12 Monday/Tuesday)
With that in mind, below are our picks and predictions for the rest of Week 13:


NFL playoff picks, predictions against spread: Bucs solve Saints; Chiefs bounce Browns; Bills, Packers survive.
And then there were eight teams remaining in the race for Super Bowl 55. With the divisional round of the 2021 NFL playoffs here it's time for another round for picks and predictions against the spread.
Although the slate drops from six games during wild-card weekend to a combined four this Saturday and Sunday, there's still plenty of good two-day action between the AFC and NFC matchups. There are two strong favorites and two mild favorites among the home teams this week.
Here's to trying to build on our solid success navigating through the numbers from last week:
NFL playoff picks, predictions against the spread.
Game of the Week: Ravens at Bills (-2.5, 50 o/u)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.
This game will live up to the billing of being a dynamic passing and running duel between 2018 first-round quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. The Bills' defensive weakness is against the run, which will allow Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to get going between the tackles and around the edges. The Ravens are solid against the run but, despite some having some good, experienced pass rushers and cornerbacks, they have lapses in pressure and coverage, which can expose them further with their frequent blitzes.
Jackson will do plenty of damage on the ground and Allen will have his share of key physical runs. It will come down to which quarterback can make a few more big pass plays off script. Jackson will see Tre'Davious White contain Marquise Brown, left leaning mostly on tight end Mark Andrews in a great matchup. The difference will be the Bills' Stefon Diggs, who can consistently get the better of Marcus Peters outside to boost Allen.
Pick: Bills win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Chiefs (-10, 55.5 o/u) over Browns.
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Browns came out looking for big plays and takeaways against the Steelers and were successful, eventually closing out their AFC North rivals with Nick Chubb and the power running game. Chubb and former Chiefs feature back Kareem Hunt will be critical to the chances of a second consecutive (and much bigger) road upset.
Baker Mayfield can't get into a pure chuck-fest with Patrick Mahomes because he doesn't have the same all-around weapons and is facing the much tougher of the two overall pass defenses. The Browns need to play ball control, picking good spots for Mayfield to hit on big plays off play-action and bootlegs and then make sure they lean on Chubb and Hunt most to finish in the red zone.
The Chiefs will counter by relentlessly throwing with a rested Mahomes. The Browns simply do not have anyone who can cover wide receiver Tyreek Hill deep or tight end Travis Kelce on intermediate routes. The goal will be jumping off to a significant lead and limiting the Browns' use of the run, putting Mayfield in uncomfortable situations against Frank Clark, Chris Jones and the rest of the Chiefs' pass rush. Mayfield also needs to be careful throwing to the middle of the field with safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorenson looming.
The Browns won't have answers for Mahomes. The Chiefs will find plenty for Mayfield in the second half.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET, Fox.
Tom Brady's first game as a Buccaneer was rough in New Orleans in Week 1. His second shot at the Saints was even worse at home in Week 9. But Brady wasn't playing nearly at the same level in either previous meeting as he is now, fully locked into his wide receivers, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. He's set at tight end, too, whether it's Cameron Brate or old buddy Rob Gronkowski running the routes. The Saints have developed more coverage issues all over the field and after seeing their defense twice on film, Brady will adjust into the most comfortable matchup, most every time.
The Bucs and Saints both stop the run well, so it will come down which fortysomething quarterback, Brady or Drew Brees, can avoid the big mistakes but also deliver big plays. Brady has simply been the more impressive passer with the stronger arm for his age and has more guys who can cause matchup problems. Brees will have success working on shorter routes to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, but Evans, Godwin and Brown will be of bigger help to Brady.
Pick: Buccaneers win 34-31.
Rams at Packers (-7, 46 o/u)
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Rams will make this a game because of their running game. Their offensive line pushed around the Seahawks with Andrew Whitworth back and the fresh legs of rookie Cam Akers has made the rushing attack central again. Jared Goff will be a little healthier to take advantage of that, working play-action to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. The Packers will handle some of that by putting cornerback Jaire Alexander on Woods.
On the other side, Aaron Rodgers will see Davante Adams locked up with Jalen Ramsey and knows center Corey Linsley and the rest of his strong interior offensive line need to keep Aaron Donald at bay, especially with the edge compromised without left tackle David Bakhtiari. Rodgers and Aaron Jones don't find it easy at first, but then Rodgers finds tight end Robert Tonyan and other matchups he likes away from downfield and Jones will go to work on a worn-down group in the second half.
The Rams' defense makes a statement against the MVP QB in Green Bay, but they can't do enough to make sure the Rams' offense outscores whatever Rodgers leads the Packers to do.
Pick: Packers win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Stats of the Week.
Wild-card playoff straight up: 5-1 Wild-card playoffs against the spread: 3-2 Season straight up: 169-93 Season against the spread: 135-119.


NFL picks, predictions for Week 17: Browns edge Steelers; Packers dash Bears' playoff hopes; Washington wins NFC East.
Six playoff spots are still open heading into the final week of the NFL regular season. The AFC wild-card race and NFC home-field advantage race are among the big storylines heading into the final week.
There are four games between teams with winning records, and those are some of the more-interesting pieces of the puzzle. Pittsburgh and Cleveland meet at 1 p.m. with the Browns looking to clinch their first playoff berth since 2002. Miami also is looking to make the AFC playoffs with rookie Tua Tagovailoa, but they need to beat rival Buffalo to get there.
In the NFC, Arizona and Los Angeles meet in a huge NFC West showdown; one Jared Goff could miss with a thumb injury. Chicago is trying to sneak into the NFC playoffs too, but Green Bay is looking for home-field advantage with MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers.
Week 17 should be fantastic as a result, and it's one last chance to improve our straight-up picks record:
Last Week: 11-5 Season: 116-72.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for Week 17:
NFL picks, predictions Week 17.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX.
Tom Brady averages 311.3 passing yards with eight TDs and no interceptions in his last three games. He's warming up in time for the playoff run, and Tampa Bay hands Atlanta its 10th one-score loss of the season.
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 24.
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Giants.
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX.
The winner in the NFC East clash will put pressure on Washington to win in the prime-time spot. The Cowboys have averaged 36 points per game the last three weeks. The Giants have struggled to score. Andy Dalton puts Dallas on the cusp of a playoff berth. Will they get a little help?
Pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 20.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS.
The opening line has dropped 5.5 points; a nod to the improvement from the Jets the last two weeks. The Patriots offense has slumped down the stretch, and Bill Belichick has an interesting offseason coming. New England closes with a victory.
Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 13.
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Detroit Lions.
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX.
Detroit has little incentive to play Matthew Stafford here. Dalvin Cook will not play, but it's another chance for Kirk Cousins to connect with Justin Jefferson. The Vikings finish it off in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Vikings 30, Lions 23.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS.
The line has jumped up 3.5 points, which is a little eye-popping considering the Steelers won the first meeting 38-7. Which Cleveland players will be out because of COVID-19? Will the Steelers sit their starters or try to eliminate their AFC North rivals? This is a game we would stay away from because of those variables, but there is no better time for the Browns to break through than now.
Pick: Browns 26, Steelers 23.
Baltimore Ravens (-11) at Cincinnati Bengals.
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS.
The Ravens need this one to keep their playoff hopes alive, and rookie J.K. Dobbins has offered a spark in the running game to compliment Lamar Jackson. Cincinnati has not folded the last two weeks and is capable of being a spoiler. Jackson just won't let it happen.
Pick: Ravens 34, Bengals 21.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS.
Miami needs a win to get in the playoffs, and this could be every bit the thriller the 31-28 shootout in Week 2 was between the teams. The Dolphins pull the first real upset of the day, and Tua Tagovailoa enjoys his first signature victory.
Pick: Dolphins 28, Bills 24.
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX.
The Seahawks won the first meeting 37-27, but they must be careful here. C.J. Beathard threw three TD passes last week, and Jeff Wilson and George Kittle can give Seattle's defense problems. Russell Wilson delivers a clutch drive, however, and that puts the pressure on the Packers and Saints in the afternoon window.
Pick: Seahawks 28, 49ers 25.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS.
The Rams are favored now, but this line could shift dramatically if Jared Goff (thumb) is unable to play. John Wolford is the Rams' backup, and Los Angeles faces the task of keeping up with Kyler Murray. The Cardinals have their own issues, but Murray does enough to scratch out a victory.
Pick: Cardinals 24, Rams 19.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-13.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS.
The Colts are in a must-win situation, and they will rely on rookie Jonathan Taylor against a shaky Jaguars' run defense. Jacksonville has the No. 1 pick locked up, so the future of this AFC South rivalry is much brighter. Philip Rivers plays a clean game.
Pick: Colts 31, Jaguars 20.
Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Houston Texans.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS.
The Titans still control their playoff destiny, and they will need a win against the rival Texans to get there. Houston ranks 31st in run defense, and Derrick Henry needs 223 yards to get to 2,000 rushing yards for the season. It's not impossible.
Pick: Tennessee 31, Houston 23.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS.
The Broncos have won one of their last five games, and the Raiders have lost three straight games. Derek Carr leads Las Vegas to a .500 record in Jon Gruden's third season, and that will increase expectations for 2021.
Pick: Raiders 28, Broncos 21.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX.
The Chiefs have little incentive to play starters in this game, and that makes it tough to go against the Chargers and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert – who completes a record-setting season in style with a fourth straight victory.
Pick: Chargers 29, Chiefs 24.
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Chicago Bears.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX.
In the first meeting on Nov. 29, the Packers jumped out to a 27-3 lead in the first half, but Mitchell Trubisky found something in the second half of a 41-25 loss. He's been hot ever since and the offense is clicking. The problem? Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are clicking too, and they need this win for home-field advantage. Trubisky is 1-5 against Green Bay. The Packers pull through in the fourth quarter, but it will be close.
Pick: Packers 33, Bears 26.
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Carolina Panthers.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX.
The Saints still have a shot at home-field advantage with a little help. Alvin Kamara had 148 total yards in the first meeting, and he will be the difference on the road in yet another one-score loss for the Panthers.
Pick: Saints 30, Panthers 23.
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC.
Washington needs a road victory here, but the question remains whether Alex Smith will be healthy enough to start at quarterback in a must-win situation. Jalen Hurts has a chance to play spoiler, and with the Cowboys watching closely, it will be close. Washington, however, comes up with a late turnover to clinch the division.
Pick: Washington 24, Philadelphia 21.




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