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п»їNBA Betting : Sports Betting Formulas.
Well, I decided to mess with some formula betting today in the NBA since it was a short schedule (3 games). The result so far is 2 for 2 and the third game is playing. I normally would not bring up formula betting, but it’s a common thing with people who use computer predicting programs. I think a formula can help aid the sports handicapping process, but it should not be used solely. Who’s to say that today’s basketball betting formula will work tomorrow? Ok, let’s take a peak at this NBA sports betting formula to see what it entails.
Before I continue, let me say that developing a sports betting formula that “would” have won X games in the past is worth as much as the acid rain from the sky. No good sports bettor cares about what “would” have happened. We only care about what will happen. Yes, I have spent hundreds of hours coming up will all sorts of formulas. Some are good aids, many are garbage. A common scenario will be you developing a great formula that would have won 61% of the games in the past. You would get excited and go bet the full schedule tomorrow only to watch your prized formula win 35% of the games. Figuring it’s a fluke, you try again and again. Finally, one week later you realize that your 30-40% is as good as it gets. The point is, don’t rely on some “computerized” formula to predict real flesh and blood life.
Total up the last 5 offensive and defensive point totals and average them out. Boston’s offensive average was 97.6 points and their defensive average was 100.4 points. Miami’s offensive average was 109.8 points and their defensive average was 100.6 points. Next, I look at their season averages for offense and defense. Boston’s season averages were: 98.2 O and 99.9 D. Miami was 101.2 O and 96.5 D. Now I take the season averages and average them into the step 1 averages. This gave me the following numbers: Boston’s offense: 97.9 points Boston’s defense: 100.15 points Miami’s offense 105.5 points Miami’s defense 98.55 points. It’s now time to simulate a match up by adding Boston’s offensive average together with Miami’s defensive average and vise versa. We now have the estimated score: Boston: 98.2 Miami 102.8 According to this, Miami should be a 4.5 favorite and the total should be around 201.
My second game, using this NBA betting formula, predicted the following outcome: Seattle 102.4 Philly 101.4 (total 203.8). Looking at the NBA basketball line, I found that Philly was a 7 point dog, so I bet em. The game just went final as of the start of this writing. Final Score: Seattle: 102 Philly:98 — Another win.
My last game, which is still in progress, is between Minnesota and Golden State. The NBA basketball formula predicted the score would be: Minnesota: 99 Golden State: 97 (197 total). Since Minnesota was a 7 point dog, I bet them. With about one minute to go in the third quarter, Minnesota is down by 8. Even if they drop the ball, two out of three is not bad.
I will run the formula against tomorrow’s full slate and expand further on what games were selected. I will post early so you can read well before the games start.


Finding the Best F1 Racing Betting Sites of 2021.
Arguably the biggest sport within auto racing, Formula One (F1) has found success and popularity in all corners of the world. Though it is predominantly more popular in Europe, the sport is gaining new fans on every other continent every single day (except maybe Antarctica but who knows). While watching the sport is an absolute rush, betting on it can make things a lot more exciting and potentially profitable if you know what you’re doing.
One of the biggest decisions that you must make when betting on F1 racing is where you’re going to bet. Your options used to only include a local casino or sportsbook (if you lived by one) or your cousin Vinny’s shady bookie friend who would break your legs if you didn’t pay. Thankfully, with the advancement of the internet, there are a ton more options for you to choose from that bring a whole lot more to the table.
We won’t hit you with all the benefits, but convenience, better bonuses and rewards, ease of use, the ability to line shop and the fact you don’t have to wear pants to bet if you don’t want to are just a few of the perks. These perks, however, can only be realized if you use a top-notch sportsbook to take your F1 betting action.
Sadly, finding the best of the best when it comes to online sportsbooks is no easy task. There are literally hundreds of options, and a lot of them may look great on the surface but are actually garbage. So how do you find the best options available to you? Well, you came to the right place.
We’ve put together a comprehensive guide to help you identify and get signed up at the best sportsbooks online that offer F1 racing action.
I’ve Got a Hot Tip! Get Me Betting NOW!
For a lot of you, this is probably only a quick pit stop on your way to make your first wager. Maybe you have a hot tip, or you’re just ready to get down on the action for today’s race. Either way, we wanted to lead off by giving you our top list of recommended F1 online betting sites. These sites are the most trustworthy, reliable, and offer the best action on Formula One racing.
Now, it’s important to note, sportsbooks can NEVER pay to be listed on our recommended list. They can NEVER pay us for better reviews or any favorable treatment. The only way that we allow sites to make this list (and stay there) is by providing an incredible product and an all-around awesome experience for customers. Period. End of story. No excuses. What good is a recommendation or a review if it’s really just an advertisement?
What’s Important in an F1 Betting Site.
For those of you that aren’t in a hurry to get your bets in, we wanted to walk you through exactly how we came up with those recommendations and what criteria we deem the most important.
Trust and Integrity.
If there were a pole position for important criterion when selecting a betting site, this would be the winner 100% of the time. The number one thing that you must look at when selecting a new site is the level of trust and integrity that the site offers. You HAVE to know that your money and your personal information are safe and secure from internal and external threats.
Figuring this information out is not always easy. Just because a site has gorgeous graphics and says they are on the up and up does not mean they are telling you the truth. You have to pop the hood and take a look at what the site is really working with. Specifically, we like to look at the following things to make our determination about a site’s trust and integrity:
Company History.
Management Team Industry Reputation Customer Complaints Licensing and Regulations Terms of Service Payment Processing Issues.
We compile all of this information and anything else we can find to make our ruling on how much a site should be trusted. If there are ANY red flags/black flags/yellow flags, we immediately will discard the site as one that should be avoided. There are some areas that we will bend, but this is not one of them. You work too hard for your money to have it ever be at risk.
Betting Options.
Since F1 is not considered one of the big four sports (basketball, baseball, football, and soccer), sometimes sites will only offer limited or even no action on F1 races. For this reason, it becomes incredibly important to find a site that offers adequate F1 betting options.
Particularly, we are looking for sites that offer betting action on all of the races and not just the bigger ones. We’re also looking for sites that offer more betting options than only your standard win bets.
Betting and Transaction Limits (Professional Bettors Only)
If you are a massive money bettor, you may want to make sure that the site’s betting limits and transactional limits are adequate for handling your action. Most sites (and the ones we recommend) already have very high limits that should be plenty for even the most serious of professional bettors.
Website and User Interface.
Any good race fan knows that the track design is important for making a great race. If the drivers struggled to make it around or find their pit stalls, we would say that the track was terrible. This is the same when it comes to online sportsbooks offering F1 action.
We love speed. And we need to be able to place our bets quickly and in a simple to follow manner. While we may be stretching trying to make this analogy work, the point is still valid. The user interface of a site NEEDS to be well laid out, clean and set up with the end user (you) in mind.
The problem is that a lot of sites don’t put the time and resources into building out the user interface. This creates issues with placing bets, making mistakes, and the overall user experience. If it takes you 10 minutes to get a bet placed and you aren’t even sure if you made the correct one, you’re not going to have a great experience at all.
A good interface SHOULD be simple. Bets should be easy…information should be clear…the site should be easy to navigate. It baffles us why this is so hard sometimes, but it’s definitely important.
Different “Levels” of F1 Betting Sites.
As we stated above, the number of bet types and number of races you can bet on are important when selecting a new online sportsbook to take your action. While online sportsbooks never “identify” themselves as being a certain “level” of F1 betting site, there are about three rough categories that they seem to fall into.
The first level or category are your sites that have the fewest betting options available. These sites will offer win bets only on only the biggest races of the season. Maybe just the Grand Prix of Monaco and that’s it. These sites usually aren’t the best if you want to place more than one or two bets per season on F1 racing.
The next level up is comprised of sites that offer win bets on most or all of the races during the season. These sites are great for casual bettors who don’t want to risk getting confused with any prop bets or other bet types. The final and top level sites are the all inclusive sites that offer every bet type under the sun. They’ll have win bets, prop bets, season long bets, Championship bets…you name it, they will have it.
With some sports, these top level sites can be overwhelming for new or unseasoned bettors. The good news with F1, though, is that there really aren’t THAT many different bet types that are confusing, so the all-inclusive sites really work well for bettors of all skill levels. You’ll see that all of our recommended sites fall into this category.


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Prop Betting Strategy.
In sports betting on a proposition, also called a prop bet or a prop, a wager is placed on anything other than a point spread, moneyline or game total. Exactly what this wager might be is anything from which team will score first, to which quarterback will have the most passing yards, to any other scenario described by a betting site.
This form of wagering is generally considered the easiest to beat. To support this, Las Vegas’ number one sports book for prop wagers, the Las Vegas Hilton, has gone on record many times claiming that Las Vegas sports books frequently lose money on prop bets. Meanwhile, many betting sites willing to take $5K-$40K per bet on NFL sides limit props to $200 or $300 max bets.
The reason props remain the easiest wager to beat relates largely to careless bookmaking. Don’t get me wrong: this is not at all a knock on the bookmaker. With several hundred lines to create and manage, lines managers are content with simplistic methods and low betting limits for small market props. This means that it is quite possible for a serious low to mid-stake pro to analyze a single prop in far greater detail than the odds maker that created it. Meanwhile, the small max betting limit keeps the sharks away and allows for line movement based on recreational action. Careless bookmakers, no sharks, and lots of fish, sounds like a profitable market to me.
To make one thing clear about prop betting, the more smart bettors there are betting props, the lower the opportunity becomes. No one in their right mind is going to write a detailed guide to betting props. To learn, you’ll need to pick things up in bits and pieces. So, while you’ll need to do some digging to get to the point where you can analyze any prop offered, I’ll go ahead and get you started in the right direction. Here, I’ll cover a prop widely available for NFL football, “Which team will score first?”
To give this example, I’ll take my notes from the 2010 Thanksgiving Day game between the New England Patriots and the Detroit Lions. My first step in looking for value on the “which team to score first” prop was to shop as many betting sites as possible offering the line. These are the options I found:
If you’re not familiar with the term derivative , this is an important one in sports betting, and as you learn strategy, you’ll become quite familiar with it. To give it to you simply, the prop bet we’re looking at “which team will score first” is a derivative, derived from the game’s first half betting lines. To analyze this prop further, I went line shopping on these as well and found:
As far as the total is concerned, the difference between 24.5 and 25 on a half point spread is extremely factional. In fact, examining 5 years of NFL data, not once has a half time score totaled 25 points. It’s an odd number that is difficult to get, based on 7 point and 3 point scoring intervals. In this spot, I’m going to trust Pinnacle and theGreek and go with 24.5, though I will loop back to it before making a bet.
What I have now is the Pats winning by 3.9 and a total combined score of 24.5 for the first half. With this info, I can subtract 3.9 from 24.5 and get 20.6. I give half those points to each team (10.3 each) and then add the 3.9 back in, giving it all to the Pats. What I end up with is a predicted score of Pats 14.2 Lions 10.3. This score has Pats winning by 3.9 points and a total of 24.5, so the prediction fits.
A Little About Derivatives.
The prop bet we just analyzed was a two level deep derivative: Which team to score first is derived from the half time line, which is derived from the full game line. If you’ve read my article on the current betting market, you likely understand that the top level derivative here is the most efficient. The beautiful thing about derivatives in sports betting is that as the main market moves, derivatives follow at a slower pace. Going back earlier in the week to when this prop market first hit the board, the Patriots were favored by more points than they are now. The fact that a small-market level two derivative never fully caught up, combined with recreational bettors moving the line, are the reasons we were able to find this +EV bet. This is an article for another time, but one of the top ways to win in sports betting is to find slow moving derivatives. When you go forward to learning other props, look for ones that are as many derivatives deep as possible, and you’ll have an easier time quantifying your edge.
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